Carbon Credits-CDM & JI

The Human Factor

Contemporary ecological crises are distinguished from earlier manifestations of environmental change by their human dimensions. Both human origins and consequences set apart phenomena such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, desertification, and climate change. The latter is especially disturbing, demonstrating both an increased scope and scale for human intervention in ecological systems and processes, and an increased impact upon human populations.
While evidence of climate change has only recently emerged, the phenomenon is far from novel. Geological records indicate previous dramatic shifts in global average surface temperature, which were accompanied by associated changes in regional and local climates.4 These shifts have been attributed to various natural causes and feedback loops related to, among other phenomena, slight shifts in the orbit of the earth, variability in solar irradiance, dramatic changes in the reflectivity of the planet, and volcanic activity. The analogous contemporary phenomena of global warming and climate change, however, are set apart by increased impact upon human populations, and likely also by “anthropogenesis,” the human origins of the crisis itself.
The evidence that the earth is warming is overwhelming; over the past 100 years, an increase of 0.6˚ Celsius in the average global surface temperature of the earth has contributed to highly differentiated deviations from normal weather patterns across the globe. However, while the phenomenon itself is generally incontrovertible, the causes of climate change have been hotly debated. A not insignificant minority of the scientific community disputes the anthropogenic character of contemporary
climate change, arguing instead that the phenomenon is natural in origin. Still, the clear balance of scientific opinion and evidence does implicate significant human contributions. Since the emergence of climate change as a field of inquiry in its own right, compelling evidence has been found to support the notion of anthropogenesis. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a consensus- based international scientific community dedicated to understanding the origins and implications of global warming, has demonstrated a high level of concurrence on the anthropogenic elements of the phenomenon, attributing its development to two chief causes: land use change and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Releases of sequestered carbon, alterations in the capacity for carbon sequestration, changes in the reflectivity of the planet, and modifications to the composition of the atmosphere have set the global climate on a path toward serious environmental change. GHG emissions are considered the most pernicious of these causes, and current totals, both natural and anthropogenic, greatly exceed the earth’s limited recycling capacity.10
The present human suffering generated by climate change goes well beyond the psychological and financial hardships of displacement. Recent research attributes more than 160,000 deaths per year—mostly poor children in Africa, Asia, and Latin America—to climate change-related causes including, but not limited to, extreme weather and the poleward spread of typically tropical diseases. Notably, the consequences of climate change threaten poor populations and future generations in disproportionate measure to their GHG emissions, demonstrating the uneven geographic and temporal distribution of climate change’s pernicious effects.18 Put simply, today’s rich populations produce more GHG emissions while the consequent burden of human suffering is borne by today’s poor and by future generations.
But the Global North will not escape this suffering forever, for the clock is ticking on its relative insulation from the gathering environmental storm. The effects of climate change are unlike those of many other environmental problems characterized by exportable externalities, such as nuclear waste. Climate change will inevitably hit home for many of the international community’s largest GHG emitters. We may already be seeing some consequences. Europe’s summer of 2003, for example, was the hottest since the sixteenth century, and more than 19,000 deaths on the continent were attributable, at least in part, to the oppressive heat.19 The research also indicates a possible dramatic acceleration in climate change, as the summer of 2003 exceeded average summer temperatures of the period 1901–1995 by 2.0˚ Celsius. While no single weather event may be attributed to global warming, this summer heat wave was consistent with the predicted patterns of global climate change. Meanwhile, average temperatures of European winters over the past three decades have been the warmest since instrumented readings became available in 1750.

Faced with the prospect of even minimal emissions reductions, negotiators at the 6th Conference of the Parties (COP-6) began the development of the Protocol’s flexibility mechanisms, policy devices designed to limit the necessity of domestic emissions reductions in favor of joint action. Among these flexibility mechanisms is “emissions trading.” Often described as “hot air,” emissions trading is the mechanism by which countries that have achieved emissions reductions in excess of their targets may sell the difference to countries that would rather not achieve their emissions reductions through domestic action. Notably, the majority of “hot air” would be provided by countries of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, whose reductions have been achieved because of economic recession. Also notable are joint implementation (JI) and the clean development mechanism (CDM). JI represents an energy development or GHG sequestration project conducted by one member of Annex B in another Annex B country, in exchange for credits equivalent to the difference between business-as-usual (BAU) and actual emissions. CDM, on the other hand, represents an exchange between a member of Annex B and a non-Annex B country. The Parties have also included carbon sinks, representing already existing sequestration capacity, in accounting for domestic emissions, effectively reducing the emissions reduction requirements of many Annex B nations. While applicable sink credits are capped, there are no limits to the use of “hot air,” JI, or CDM.
These policy tools have been designated as means to achieve economically efficient emissions abatement. Unfortunately, the implementation of these mechanisms will likely lead to emissions increases according to BAU projections, rather than to abatement.24 Indeed, phantom emissions reductions from the application of these flexibility mechanisms, applied to the accounts of Annex B countries, ensure a “successful” protocol despite these likely increases in emissions. Parties may claim to have achieved their target reductions despite significant emissions growth at both national and international levels. changing the climate of christian internationalism: global warming and human suffering.